Sports wagering beyond the basics -- Creamy Middles Sports Podcast, Episode 109

Just below the mainstream surface, betting lines create a whole new world of interest in sports outcomes. David A. Arnott speaks with a sports betting expert about how that world operates.



Download MP3 (17:01)

More Reading

Eric Ferreira and David were co-workers at SportingNews.com. Eric now works behind the scenes on The Linemakers section of that site.

Eric mentioned an NCAA Tournament game from Stephen Curry's freshman year in which he lit up Maryland. That game ended with a Terrapins victory, 82-70, but Curry scored 30 points on 21 shots.

Currently, sports betting in the United States is only legal in Nevada, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been on a crusade to have the practice legalized in his state, and recently said he would take that fight to the United States Supreme Court.

Rob Gronkowski, the Carolina Panthers, and the logic of defensive pass interference

Gronkowski is clearly being held,so why was the flag thrown? He couldn't even make an effort to catch it if he tried pic.twitter.com/fd4OoVDzB8
— Jason Michalski (@jcmichalski) November 19, 2013

The dumbest part of the final call in last night's Monday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots was the logic involved.

Set aside the legalese of the rule book -- even though it appears the rule book would support throwing the flag. The whole point of defensive pass interference is that we don't know what would have happened without the foul, and so the defense gets penalized. The uncatchable ball provision is there so that the referee can pick up the flag if it's completely clear that the pass couldn't have been legally caught, anyway. You know, like if the pass went twenty yards out of bounds.

I think we can all agree that it was exceedingly unlikely that Rob Gronkowski would have caught Tom Brady's last pass, but to call it an uncatchable ball is ludicrous.

Imagining a better NFL: The Richie Incognito scandal got Jay Cowit and David A. Arnott thinking about what the NFL could do to build a better working environment. It starts by acknowledging that the NFL’s brand of pro football is a millionaire’s game.



Download MP3 (23:32)

More Reading

Ben Valentine wrote a comprehensive summary of the Incognito-Jonathan Martin affair for Creamy Middles earlier this week.

Pete Carroll’s new-age-ish motivational techniques are described in this ESPN profile from August.

Deadspin posted Brandon Marshall’s comments about how football culture is an extension of the wider culture when it comes to teaching people how to react to pain.

SB Nation has a more complete comparison of the NFL’s handling of hazing to how the Marines address it.

Ta-Nehisi Coates takes issue with people trying to argue that there’s nothing to see here, really, because that’s just how the NFL is.

The Creamy Middles Podcast is a weekly discussion attacking the belly issues of sports -- ideas that go beyond wins and losses. Jay Cowit usually produces it, though David may occasionally step in. Music is either royalty-free, by J. Cowit and the Ruthless Orchestra, or 29 Sunset. Subscribe in iTunes or in another podcatcher with this RSS feed.

Jonathan Martin's critics expose themselves as retrograde cretins

(Guest post by Ben Valentine)


Here’s what we know about the situation currently roiling the Miami Dolphins and the National Football League.

Jonathan Martin, a second-year offensive lineman, left the Dolphins to deal with an issue which apparently came to a head after several teammates all got up from his table at a team meal.

Richie Incognito, a veteran offensive lineman, left a voicemail which included a racial slur, threats to Martin’s family, and threats to defecate into Martin’s mouth. Another teammate — or Incognito (it’s not clear) — left at least one message saying he would “run a train” on Martin’s sister.

Here’s what we don’t know for certain, but only know based on leaks.

— Dolphins coaches told Incognito to toughen up Martin.

— Certain Dolphins thought Incognito was “blacker” than Martin and appeared to like Incognito more.

— Jeff Ireland, the Dolphins general manager, told Martin’s agent that Martin should punch Incognito. Apparently, he’s not alone.

— Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins quarterback, said he thought Martin would consider Incognito a great friend.

— Brian Hartline, a Dolphins wide receiver, said Martin played the voicemail and laughed about it.

— Lydon Murtha, a former Dolphins offensive lineman, said that Martin was taken under Incognito’s wing and that the “extortion” of $15,000 was Martin trying to bail out of paying money fronted beforehand for a Las Vegas trip.

— Martin appears to have voted for Incognito for the Dolphins leadership council.

It seems impossible for all of the leaks to have been accurate. The last four especially seem to contradict Martin’s claim. But it’s quite possible for all of these statements to be at least partially true. In fact, I’d go so far as to say most of the leaks have a degree of truth to them — though the Murtha piece is by far the most dubious for reasons that are laid out by Pro Football Talk.

If you don’t understand how these leaks could all be true, I encourage you to read Drew Magary’s accounts of his bullying at Deadspin. Then go back and look at what Martin’s high school coach said about him:

“He always wanted to make everybody happy and make friends and not be a problem,” Eumont said. “All of his teachers loved him. All of his teammates loved him. His nickname was Moose and he was happy to have that. He was always ‘yes or no sir,’ do whatever you ask him to do. I can see where somebody that’s a bully will take advantage of him, and rather than him say anything would just hold it inside. “I can see where if somebody was bullying him he would take that to heart, and be concerned and think it was his fault.”

It’s easy to see how this could have happened. Martin, by the accounts of pretty much all of his Stanford teammates (and even the Dolphins who are trashing him) is an introverted guy. The coaching staff of the Dolphins thought Martin lacked the “right” mentality, so they sicced Incognito on him. Incognito went full-bore, berating him, never really considering that his actions would be more detrimental than motivational. The rest of the offensive line had no problem with him doing this — or, if they did, they didn’t feel comfortable saying anything.

As Incognito kept layering on the insults, Martin, wanting to be accepted, went along with it. He may have even played the voicemails for others, hoping someone would pipe up, “That’s not cool, Richie.” But when they didn’t, he tried to fit in and laugh. The anxiety built for months, but he kept trying to fit in. He even tried to show he wasn’t bothered by voting for Incognito to be on the leadership council and making it known that that he had.

But it didn’t work.

Eventually, he couldn’t take it anymore and a final prank set him off. Martin left the team, filed a complaint, and here we are.

Ultimately, the Murtha piece illustrates the core issue at play. As PFT pointed out, Murtha was almost certainly repeating someone else’s talking points, simply because he was only around Incognito and Martin for about four months in 2012. The things being talked about happened months after Murtha’s release, making it impossible for him to have seen them firsthand.

Murtha’s piece boils down to a justification of juvenile antics. In his defense of Incognito he, more or less, explains how Martin could have reasonably decided he had to leave for his own safety. It’s in the text (all emphases below mine):

Which brings me to my first point: I don’t believe Richie Incognito bullied Jonathan Martin. I never saw Martin singled out, excluded from anything, or treated any differently than the rest of us. We’d have dinners and the occasional night out, and everyone was invited. He was never told he can’t be a part of this. It was the exact opposite. But when he came out, he was very standoffish. That’s why the coaches told the leaders, bring him out of his shell. Figure him out a little bit.

Set aside that Murtha is again talking about less than a half a year of experience with Martin, he confirmed the Dolphins coaches told the leaders to get on Martin’s case. He tried to downplay it, make it seem like a good-natured suggestion, but even if you are inclined to believe in Incognito’s good intentions, Murtha also confirmed that the coaches erred in telling Incognito to deal with Martin. Look at Murtha’s next paragraph:

That’s where Incognito ran into a problem. Personally, I know when a guy can’t handle razzing. You can tell that some guys just aren’t built for it. Incognito doesn’t have that filter. He was the jokester on the team, and he joked with everybody from players to coaches. That voicemail he sent came from a place of humor, but where he really screwed up was using the N-word. That, I cannot condone, and it’s probably the biggest reason he’s not with the team right now. Odd thing is, I’ve heard Incognito call Martin the same thing to his face in meetings and all Martin did was laugh. Many more worse things were said about others in the room from all different parties. It’s an Animal House. Now Incognito’s being slandered as a racist and a bigot, and unfortunately that’s never going to be wiped clean because of all the wrong he’s done people in his past. But if you really know who Richie is, he’s a really good, kind man and far from a racist.

Martin couldn’t handle it and Incognito didn’t have the ability to let up. That’s a euphemistic way of saying Martin was being made miserable on the directives of out-of-touch coaches. Worse, Murtha repeated the “he laughed at being called a nigger” charge. He could have saved everyone time by simply writing, “Saying nigger is really wrong, but you don’t understand, everyone was okay with it!” (In fairness to Murtha, Hartline, who looks pretty white to me, said the same thing). In Murtha’s view, Martin’s reaction can’t be explained as trying to fit in and make the harassment go away.

There’s also this little gem:

The silliest part of this story, to me, is the incident at the cafeteria, in which Martin was supposed to have been hazed when everyone got up from their seats as he sat down. Whoever leaked that story failed to share that getting up from a packed lunch table when one lineman sits down is a running gag that has been around for years. It happened to me more than once, and it happened to Martin because guys on the team say he was overcoming an illness. Just like when a guy is hurt, the joke is, I don’t want to sit with you, you’ve got the bug. Perhaps for Martin it was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but when Incognito reached him after he stormed out, Martin told him the departure had nothing to do with Incognito. Martin said it was something else. Then the media onslaught began.

This paragraph is why, despite my distrust of Mike Florio, I agree with him that Murtha is parroting a talking point. There is no way he could have known about this incident with any level of confidence without talking to a Dolphins player. It’s also why Sports Illustrated should be ashamed of itself for actually attempting to portray this as an unbiased testimonial. Not only has Murtha given a blow-by-blow account of something that happened when he wasn’t there, but he’s given a supposed insider’s account of Martin and Incognito’s relationship, even though he hasn’t been around for months, and even though he explicitly admitted he doesn’t talk to Martin regularly.

Here’s more Murtha derp-itude:

Incognito was made a scapegoat for the hell coming down on the Dolphins organization, which in turn said it knew nothing about any so-called hazing. That’s the most outlandish lie of this whole thing. The coaches know everything. The coaches know who’s getting picked on and in many cases call for that player to be singled out. Any type of denial on that side is ridiculous. I have friends on more than a dozen teams, and it’s the same everywhere. What people want to call bullying is something that is never going away from football. This is a game of high testosterone, with men hammering their bodies on a daily basis. You are taught to be an aggressive person, and you typically do not make it to the NFL if you are a passive person. There are a few, but it’s very hard. Playing football is a man’s job, and if there’s any weak link, it gets weeded out. It’s the leaders’ job on the team to take care of it.

And now the fun really begins. This passage is a key piece of evidence pointing to Incognito as Murtha’s source, because the coaches are thrown under the bus. But again that interests me less than the bottom of the paragraph. That’s where Murtha confirmed and attempted to justify Martin’s bullying.

The most unfortunate thing about this situation is the consequence it will have on the careers of both men. Richie’s marked himself now as a racist and a bigot, and unfortunately that could be the end of it. Martin is on the opposite end of the spectrum, but no more likely than Incognito to return to the NFL if he wants. In going to the media with his problem, Martin broke the code, and it shows that he’s not there for his teammates and he’s not standing up for himself. There might be a team that gives him a chance because he’s a good person, but the players will reject him. They’ll think, If I say one thing he’s going to the press. He’ll never earn the respect of teammates and personnel in the NFL because he didn’t take care of business the right way.
What fans should understand is that every day in the NFL there are battles between players worse than what’s being portrayed. This racial slur would be a blip on the radar if everything that happens in the locker room went public. But all over the league, problems are hashed out in house. Either you talk about it or you get physical. But at the end of the day, you handle it indoors.

There it is. Despite the fact an NFL locker room is a mess of intolerance, slurs, and a host of horrors you can’t possibly comprehend for your own sanity, in Murtha’s view, Martin committed a major sin by going to the press (he didn’t — the press dug it up after seeing that Martin had left) and airing the dirty laundry. However, that logic only goes so far, even on its own terms. For example, I’d love to know why it’s okay for Incognito to file a grievance against the Dolphins when he could have just punched Ireland in the face and avoided the risk of the press finding out.

Murtha painted a picture of a guy who couldn’t handle the heat and abuse co-workers launched his way out of a desire to toughen him up “or bring him out of his shell.” And when he couldn’t handle it, he responded by breaking a sacred code. Ignore that this code provides cover for an environment so offensive that racial slurs and threats of defecation and violence against people not in the locker room would be considered small-time. Ignore that one person who was in a locker room like that last season is alleged to have committed a murder. Ignore that one person who was in a locker room like that did murder his girlfriend and child and then committed suicide in the team parking lot.

Imagine trying that logic in any other workplace. “You just don’t understand — you’re not a doctor. If you were, you’d understand why federal laws need not apply here.”

Make no mistake, Jonathan Martin was bullied and put in a terrible, possibly illegal, work environment. And the bullying continues. Will it end with a forced recanting or will heads roll?

I suspect there will be a settlement, and the Dolphins and Incognito will give some half-hearted apology alongside Martin, who will add that the differences were cleared up and he’s ready to move on. Neither Martin nor Incognito will play for the Dolphins again. I suspect they’ll both be out of the league for good within two years.

No matter what the Dolphins want to say, Richie Incognito has a terrible track record. He’s was kicked out of two colleges, left negative impressions at multiple NFL stops, has used racial slurs more than once and, sadly more importantly, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and on the decline. He’s simply not worth the headache, not when new information about his sterling character keeps emerging.

There are a good number of players who won’t want Martin around either. His teammates certainly seem like they don’t. It’s possible his old coach, the 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh, who openly says he supports Martin, will give him a chance. But Martin hasn’t been a great pro either, so if he doesn’t turn it around quickly, when he does play again, his leash will be short.

Hopefully, something else happens. Hopefully, the stench of this case forces the NFL to change. That it doesn’t just become the choice of a coach like the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll, or the Bears’ Marc Trestman, or the Eagles’ Chip Kelly, that the NFL, as a league, starts punishing teams that allow this culture to continue. That will happen eventually. In the technological age we live in, you can’t bury this stuff forever.

It would just be nice if the change started sooner, rather than later.

Ben Valentine was born on Valentine’s Day. Really.

(Image cc-licensed: "MIA_vs_OAK_008" by June Rivera)

[Cam] Newton really did have to learn. Mainly, he had to learn to control his sideline image better, so that he didn’t make it easy for writers to invent stupid controversies.

Cam Newton has been awesome in the NFL all along. Anyone arguing differently is just trolling for a column peg.

Give the people what they want: The NBA takes a step toward letting viewers watch games on whatever device they want. Jay Cowit and David A. Arnott talk about how sports is both driving and following modern media trends.



Download MP3 (26:11)

More Reading

The SportsBusiness Journal first reported on the NBA’s plan to allow local streaming of games. (Disclosure: David works for BizJournals.com, which shares a parent company with SBJ.)

The Telegraph (UK) posted the relevant footage of Kevin Spacey’s speech about choosing to distribute a television series on Netflix.

Roger Goodell’s quote about an NFL team playing in London, as passed on by ESPN, was: “I want both (London and L.A.), but it doesn’t matter which one is first.”

Derek Thompson of The Atlantic posted a chart that clearly illustrates where the Walt Disney Co. makes its money.

There are several hundred videos showing Mike Tyson knockouts on YouTube, but here’s a solid clip show, and don’t watch the Jake Brown video unless you’re prepared to see a guy hit the ground from five stories up.

The Creamy Middles Podcast is a weekly discussion attacking the belly issues of sports -- ideas that go beyond wins and losses. Jay Cowit usually produces it, though David may occasionally step in. Music is either royalty-free, by J. Cowit and the Ruthless Orchestra, or 29 Sunset. Subscribe in iTunes or in another podcatcher with this RSS feed.

"We were too hungry to get in there and battle those big country boys full of ham and kale."

Link: "We were too hungry to get in there and battle those big country boys full of ham and kale."

Dave Zirin points out that the Grambling State football team’s refusal to play is hardly unprecedented. In 1936, Howard University’s football team refused to take the field in protest of not receiving any food from the school. In that case, it appears members of the student body actively supported players in the protest.

Zirin also notes that the All Players United protests this season could easily take on a new tenor, given the revelations of how Grambling’s team has been treated, and that much of this conflict can be traced back to Louisiana’s state-level budget cuts.

To play or not to play football: Adrian Peterson and Jadeveon Clowney faced football’s play-at-all-costs culture. Jay Cowit and David A. Arnott try to understand their decisions and, in the Clowney situation, try to brainstorm a solution.

Download MP3 (27:02)

Here’s Adrian Peterson’s text to FoxSports.com and @LauraOkmin:

My brother passed the night before the combine and I decided to go through with it. The same reason why I will play this week. You may ask why? God wants good to come from it. … We mourn and grieve but heaven had the baddest welcoming party for my son. That knowledge gives me peace. I’m still hurt and feel the pain of life, but I’m able to function because of the peace and joy of knowing my loved ones are in a much better place.

The precise quote attributed to Vince Lombardi about concentrating on football, as formulated by Jim Valvano in his famous ESPYs speech, is:

Gentlemen, we will be successful this year, if you can focus on three things, and three things only. Your family, your religion and the Green Bay Packers.

If there’s one thing you ever read about the NCAA, it ought to be Taylor Branch’s “The Shame of College Sports”, which devastates pretty much every argument in favor of the NCAA’s existence.

Music by J Cowit and the Ruthless Orchestra.

The Creamy Middles Podcast is a weekly discussion attacking the belly issues of sports -- ideas that go beyond wins and losses. Jay Cowit usually produces it, though David may occasionally step in. Music is either royalty-free, by J. Cowit and the Ruthless Orchestra, or 29 Sunset. Subscribe in iTunes or in another podcatcher with this RSS feed.

R****ins, Miley Cyrus, Closer Entrance Music: Jay Cowit and David A. Arnott talk about an NFL team’s damaged brand, if Miley Cyrus is building a sustainable personal brand, and how they wish Major League Baseball closers would take a few chances with their personal branding.

Download MP3 (25:24)

Here’s the Cleveland Scene article about Chief Wahoo mentioned during the team branding conversation.

Check out some of the songs mentioned during the discussion about closers’ entrance music.

[spotify id="spotify:user:1215842974:playlist:6fGUMrC6Bfo2Va4VZHADLw" width="500" height="380" /]

The Creamy Middles Podcast is a weekly discussion attacking the belly issues of sports -- ideas that go beyond wins and losses. Jay Cowit usually produces it, though David may occasionally step in. Music is either royalty-free, by J. Cowit and the Ruthless Orchestra, or 29 Sunset. Subscribe in iTunes or in another podcatcher with this RSS feed.

The Seattle Seahawks' schedule problem

I’m in an office NFL survival pool, so (because I take such things far too seriously) I mapped out my picks through Week 15, and in the course of doing so came across some particularly bad news for the Seattle Seahawks that, were I a Seahawks fan, would make me very put out.

This year, the Seahawks have FIVE 10am PT games. That is, they travel eastward and play at 1pm ET. In comparison, the San Francisco 49ers, their primary rival in the NFC West, will play TWO such games this year. For what it’s worth, the Oakland Raiders play four such games, and the San Diego Chargers play six(!), including two instances of back-to-back early games.

I couldn’t find anything about it, but I suspect the Seahawks will stay somewhere in the Central time zone between Week 4 and Week 5, since they play back-to-back 10am PT games in Houston and Indianapolis. That would mirror what the 49ers have done in recent years, staying in Youngstown, OH, between games in unfavorable time zones.

The entire problem stems from a stupid NFL rule: teams are required to arrive in the host team’s city on the day before a game. I’m not sure what the rule accomplishes, other than institutionalizing a home-city advantage. It’s not designed to keep team personnel in their home cities, because otherwise the 49ers couldn’t go to Youngstown.

Why not liberalize the rule and allow teams to arrange for themselves where they’re going to practice in the week before a game? If, after their Week 3 home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars the Seahawks want to fly out that night to practice at the University of Houston facility, or Rice’s fields, or at any of the FCS schools or junior colleges or high schools, what’s the problem with that?

There are plenty of reasons not to operate that way, I’m sure, but let the team decide that.

(Image cc-licensed: "12th Man Mural… GO SEAHAWKS!" by Joe Kunzler)

If intimidation is your game plan, I hope you have a better one.

Colin Kaepernick, after the San Francisco 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers yesterday.

Adam Schefter will always be the best

//

Post by Adam Schefter.

This is a sandwich the Atlanta Falcons will offer at their training camp this year. Pulled pork. Onion rings. Mac ‘n cheese. Cole slaw. Bacon. It’s reminiscent of the Barbecue Reuben.

Via the Atlanta Falcons official site

The host Wisconsin Badgers had already clinched the championship of what I am certain is either the Leaders or Legends Division — honestly, I’ve studied hard, but I still don’t know which is which — by virtue of locking up third place; the visiting Ohio State Buckeyes were undefeated at 10-0 and playing in the same division with no real shot at winning anything, largely because their ex-quarterback had procured discount tattoos.

Michael Weinreb, writing for Grantland, lays in to the Big Ten’s most recent expansion that netted Maryland and Rutgers. Also: dynamite the NCAA, please. Happy Tuesday morning!

Kansas City Star: Eric Berry, Chiefs safety, explains his fear of horses

Link: Kansas City Star: Eric Berry, Chiefs safety, explains his fear of horses

Watch the (unembeddable) video. Everyone around him is laughing, but it’s not really a funny matter. Berry’s taking his fear of horses — and everyone making fun of him for it — in stride, but as someone with a totally irrational fear himself, it’s intensely frustrating to know that the fear and anxiety is irrational and that the source of fear doesn’t bother other people.

Via Deadspin

Sports business affects your life -- Exhibit A: Miami Marlins

If you read anything today, make sure it’s Neil deMause’s explanation of what just happened to the Miami Marlins. Even if you’re not a sports fan, sports business likely affects your life, mainly because local governments are so damn eager to throw away money on stadiums. Yes: throw away. The Marlins’ new stadium cost taxpayers somewhere in the neighborhood of $500 million, and even if they’d been a good team, most of that money wasn’t getting recouped.

UPDATE: Jonah Keri also weighs in, on Grantland.

Of course, baseball’s not the only sport with this problem. The Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn was built upon shady deals all the way around, and the Oklahoma City Thunder exist only because Seattle wouldn’t pay to replace a perfectly fine arena. (Oh, wait…)

And lest you think it’s only cities that have this problem: the Carolina Panthers are slowly getting around to asking for state money to renovate their 15-year-old stadium. Good times!

(Image cc-licensed: "Marlins Park" by verndogs)

San Francisco's untouchable traditions

Today, San Francisco will be at the center of the American sports world from about 1pm (west coast time) onward. First, the 49ers host the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants at Candlestick Park in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game.  Then, starting about half an hour after that game ends, the Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series at AT&T Park.

Something that outsiders may not understand about Bay Area sports fans is that they are intensely traditional. Not in the way that, say, southern frat bros rock ‘Bama bangs and wear neckties to the football game every Saturday, but more in the sense that they are proud of their pro sports franchises’ history and continuity.