Oscar winners, weeks in advance

The trick to correctly predicting Oscar winners this far out is to remember that it's not about how those performances made you feel -- in fact, you don't even need to have seen the films in question to get them right. Rather, it's about figuring out which performances and films Hollywood tastemakers wish to emphasize as representative of what Hollywood is capable of doing.

So... at this early stage... here's the consensus...

Best Picture -- 12 Years A Slave

Best Actor -- Matthew McConaughey

Best Actress -- Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor -- Jared Leto

Best Supporting Actress -- Jennifer Lawrence

Best Director -- Alfonso Cuaron

Best Documentary -- The Act of Killing

Best Visual Effects -- Gravity

And the other categories have yet to settle.